Praying for Rain

The state polls seem to be hinting at another nail-biter of a U.S. election. At this point, butterflies flapping their wings and drops of rain can make the election swing one way or the other. Even if it doesn't rain anywhere in the country on Tuesday, George W. Bush can win it fair and square. But he fairly won the election in 2000, and it still took several weeks for Mr. Gore to conceed his loss (for the second time). This time, I'd like to see not only a win for Bush, but also a solid, uncontroversial win.

The best way for that to happen would be rain in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvannia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Hey, rain could even be a factor in Hawaii (I heard Dick Cheney is visiting Honolulu tomorrow). Rain probably isn't very likely in New Mexico for meteorological reasons, but Bush is likely to win there anyways. In the case of rain, we'd expect some less enthusiastic voters to stay home, such as lukewarm voters and voters who only want to vote against Bush (instead of for the Democratic nominee). A strong win vs. a narrow win in these states could mean the difference between months of legal wrangling and Supreme Court appeals and a quick victory for the candidate with the most support.

Now, I don't want to disenfranchise anyone, so I'm not endorsing hurricanes or flash floods. I don't want anyone to be physically unable to make it to the ballot box. But I think if enough people in "swing states" are looking for their umbrellas on November 2, we'll know who our next president is when we wake up on November 3.

I'm sure that Kerry's campaign staff would tell me that actually Kerry's support runs deeper, but I won't believe that unless I see it. The polls I've seen indicate that most of the people who plan to vote for Kerry prefer him because his name isn't "George W. Bush". Many people strongly support Bush. Few people actually like Kerry. It takes a lot of campaigning to get people to vote for someone they dislike especially if they'll get wet in the process.